Critical Reasoning

Debater: The average amount of overtime per month worked by an employee in the manufacturing division of the Haglut Corporation is 14 hours. Most employees of the Haglut Corporation work in the manufacturing division. Furthermore, the average amount of overtime per month worked by any employee in the company generally does not fluctuate much from month to month. Therefore, each month, most employees of the Haglut Corporation almost certainly work at least some overtime. The debater's argument is most vulnerable to criticism on which of these grounds?

Vasquez-Morrell Assurance specializes in insuring manufacturers. Whenever a policyholder makes a claim, a claims adjuster determines the amount that Vasquez-Morrell is obligated to pay. Vasquez-Morrell is cutting its staff of claims adjusters by 15 percent. To ensure that the company�s ability to handle claims promptly is affected as little as possible by the staff cuts, consultants recommend that Vasquez-Morrell lay off those adjusters who now take longest, on average, to complete work on claims assigned to them. Which of the following, if true, most seriously calls into question the consultants� criterion for selecting the staff to be laid off?

Scientists have modified feed corn genetically, increasing its resistance to insect pests. Farmers who tried out the genetically modified corn last season applied less insecticide to their corn fields and still got yields comparable to those they would have gotten with ordinary corn. Ordinary corn seed, however, costs less, and what these farmers saved on insecticide rarely exceeded their extra costs for seed. Therefore, for most feed-corn farmers, switching to genetically modified seed would be unlikely to increase profits. Which of the following would it be most useful to know in order to evaluate the argument?

Exposure to certain chemicals commonly used in elementary schools as cleaners or pesticides causes allergic reactions in some children. Elementary school nurses in Renston report that the proportion of schoolchildren sent to them for treatment of allergic reactions to those chemicals has increased significantly over the past ten years. Therefore, either Renston's schoolchildren have been exposed to greater quantities of the chemicals, or they are more sensitive to them than schoolchildren were ten years ago. Which of the following is an assumption on which the argument depends?

Candle Corporation�s television stations are likely to have more income from advertisers than previously. This is because advertisers prefer to reach people in the 18- to 49-year-old age group and the number of people in the group watching Candle television is increasing. Furthermore, among Candle viewers, the percentage of viewers 18 to 49 years old is increasing. Which of the following, if true, would most strengthen the argument that Candle Corporation will receive more income from advertisers?

When there is less rainfall than normal, the water level of Australian rivers falls and the rivers flow more slowly. Because algae whose habitat is river water grow best in slow-moving water, the amount of algae per unit of water generally increases when there has been little rain. By contrast, however, following a period of extreme drought, algae levels are low even in very slow-moving river water. Which of the following, if true, does most to explain the contrast described above?

Which of the following most logically completes the passage? Leptin, a protein occurring naturally in the blood, appears to regulate how much fat the body carries by speeding up the metabolism and decreasing the appetite when the body has too much fat. Mice that do not naturally produce leptin have more fat than other mice, but lose fat rapidly when they are given leptin injections. Unfortunately, however, leptin cannot be used as a dietary supplement to control fat, since __________.

A provincial government plans to raise the gasoline tax to give people an incentive to drive less, reducing traffic congestion in the long term. However, skeptics point out that most people in the province live in areas where cars are the only viable transportation to jobs and stores and therefore cannot greatly change their driving habits in response to higher gasoline prices. B The tax will encourage many residents to switch to more fuel-efficient cars, reducing air pollution and other problems. C Because gasoline has been underpriced for decades, the province has many neighborhoods where cars are the only viable means of transportation D Most residents who cannot greatly change their driving habits could compensate for high gasoline prices by reducing other expenses. E Traffic congestion is an especially serious problem for people for whom cars are the only viable means of transportation.

Manufacturers of mechanical pencils make most of the profit on pencil leads rather than on the pencils themselves. The Write Company, which cannot sell its leads as cheaply as other manufacturers can, plans to alter the design of its mechanical pencil so that it will accept only a new designed Write Company lead, which will be sold at the same price as the Write Company's current lead. Which of the following, if true, most strongly supports the Write Company's projection that its plan will lead to an increase in its sales of pencil leads?

A successful coffee stand that serves the workers in a large office building plans to increase its profits by adding oatmeal�a hot cereal popular among the workers�to its menu. The manager says that oatmeal is �the ultimate convenience food� because it can be served by the cup, as coffee is; further, offering oatmeal will enable the stand to get into the breakfast business without making a large investment, because it does not require elaborate cooking equipment. B The ingredients needed to make oatmeal are inexpensive and do not spoil easily the way many fresh breakfast foods typically sold at coffee stands do. C In order to offer more flexible schedules to their workers, several businesses in the office building will soon be expanding their hours. D Supermarket sales of oatmeal and other cereals slowed this year following large gains last year. E Oatmeal manufacturers have recently reduced their oatmeal offerings, which had included oatmeal in microwaveable cups and convenient cereal bars made with rolled oats.

A prominent investor who holds a large stake in the Burton Tool company has recently claimed that the company is mismanaged, citing as evidence the company's failure to slow production in response to a recent rise in its inventory of finished products. It is doubtful whether an investor's sniping at management can ever be anything other than counterproductive, but in this case it is clearly not justified. It is true that an increased inventory of finished products often indicates that production is outstripping demand, but in Burton's case it indicates no such thing. Rather, the increase in inventory is entirely attributable to products that have already been assigned to orders received from customers. B The first states the position that the argument as a whole opposes; the second is evidence that has been used to support the position being opposed. C The first states the position that the argument as a whole opposes; the second states the conclusion of the argument as a whole. D The first is evidence that has been used to support a position that the argument as a whole opposes; the second provides information to undermine the force of that evidence. E The first is evidence that has been used to support a position that the argument as a whole opposes; the second states the conclusion of the argument as a whole.

Parland�s alligator population has been declining in recent years, primarily because of hunting. Alligators prey heavily on a species of freshwater fish that is highly valued as food by Parlanders, who had hoped that the decline in the alligator population would lead to an increase in the numbers of these fish available for human consumption. Yet the population of this fish species has also declined, even though the annual number caught for human consumption has not increased. Which of the following, if true, most helps to explain the decline in the population of the fish species?

A year ago, Dietz Foods launched a yearlong advertising campaign for its canned tuna. Last year Dietz sold 12 million cans of tuna compared to the 10 million sold during the previous year, an increase directly attributable to new customers brought in by the campaign. Profits from the additional sales, however, were substantially less than the cost of the advertising campaign. Clearly, therefore, the campaign did nothing to further Dietz's economic interests. B Most of the people who bought Dietz's canned tuna for the first time as a result of the campaign were already loyal customers of other Dietz products. C A less expensive advertising campaign would have brought in significantly fewer new customers for Dietz's canned tuna than did the campaign Dietz Foods launched last year. D Dietz made money on sales of canned tuna last year. E In each of the past five years, there was a steep, industry-wide decline in sales of canned tuna.

Editorial: The roof of Northtown Council�s equipment-storage building collapsed under the weight of last week�s heavy snowfall. The building was constructed recently and met local building-safety codes in every particular, except that the nails used for attaching roof supports to the building�s columns were of a smaller size than the codes specify for this purpose. Clearly, this collapse exemplifies how even a single, apparently insignificant, departure from safety standards can have severe consequences. Which of the following, if true, most strongly supports the editorial�s argument?

Motorists in a certain country frequently complain that traffic congestion is much worse now than it was 20 years ago. No real measure of how much traffic congestion there was 20 years ago exists, but the motorists' complaints are almost certainly unwarranted. The country's highway capacity has tripled in the last twenty years, thanks to a vigorous highway construction program, whereas the number of automobiles registered in the country has increased by only 75 percent. Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?

Last year a record number of new manufacturing jobs were created. Will this year bring another record? Well, any new manufacturing job is created either within an existing company or by the start-up of a new company. Within existing firms, new jobs have been created this year at well below last year�s record pace. At the same time, there is considerable evidence that the number of new companies starting up will be no higher this year than it was last year and surely the new companies starting up this year will create no more jobs per company than did last year�s start-ups. So clearly, the number of new jobs created this year will fall short of last year�s record. In the argument given, the two portions in boldface play which of the following roles?

Following several years of declining advertising sales, the Greenvile Times reorganized its advertising sales force. Before reorganization, the sales force was organized geographically, with some sales representatives concentrating on city-center businesses and others concentrating on different outlying regions. The reorganization attempted to increase the sales representatives' knowledge of clients' business by having each sales representative deal with only one type of industry or of retailing. After the reorganization, revenue from advertising sales increased. In assessing whether the improvement in advertising sales can properly be attributed to the reorganization, it would be most helpful to find out which of the following?

The city of Workney, in raising bus fares from $1.00to$1.25, proposed that 18 fare tokens be sold for $20.00toalleviatetheextraburdenofthefareincreaseonthecity�spoorpeople.Criticssuggestedalternativelythat9faretokensbesoldfor$10.00, because a $20.00 outlay would be prohibitive for poor riders. The alternative proposal depends on which of the following assumptions?

When trying to identify new technologies that promise to transform the marketplace, market researchers survey the managers of those companies that are developing new technologies. Such managers have an enormous stake in succeeding, so they invariably overstate the potential of their new technologies. Surprisingly, however, market researchers typically do not survey a new technology's potential buyers, even though it is the buyers�not the producers�who will ultimately determine a technology's commercial success. Which of the following, if true, best accounts for the typical survey practices among market researchers?

Which of the following most logically completes the argument? Utrania was formerly a major petroleum exporter, but in recent decades economic stagnation and restrictive regulations inhibited investment in new oil fields. In consequence, Utrania oil exports dropped steadily as old fields became depleted. Utrania's currently improving economic condition, together with less restrictive regulations, will undoubtedly result in the rapid development of new fields. However, it would be premature to conclude that the rapid development of new fields will result in higher oil exports, because __________.